What happens next in Hong Kong?

Hong Kong folks are being a real pain in China’s behind right now.

A corn cob in China’s ass, if you will.

One hears that it’s the Hong Kong students being trouble makers.  That may be true.

But let’s get one thing straight and perfectly clear:  they have the support of “the people”.

Simple as that.

I was living in HK at the time of the Handover.  I, like everyone else at the time, assumed that the Hong Kong people would not only be allowed to vote for who they wanted as their leader, but would defacto be allowed to also choose their candidates.   Alas, that ink apparently never dried on any contract, or treaty or memo of understanding.

And that’s neither here nor there.

Why is that?

Because should China go rolling into HKG and violently put down any demonstrations with typical Chinese Characteristics, there ain’t one person in Mainland China that’s gonna scream FOUL.

Oh the truth will come out. Anything China eventually does in Hong Kong will be found out in China amongst the fruit peddlers, the taxi drivers, and everyone else.  And no one will feel any sympathy towards any of those poor souls in Hong Kong.  No Remorse.  No Angst. Certainly no Regret.

That’s just how China rolls.   And that’s just how the Chinese People roll.

First of all, we need to be clear:

There will be no tanks clanking down Central, or even Nathan Road.

But the Chinese government needs to understand something with utmost clarity, which it until now has failed to grasp:

The Hong Kong People have a sense of Unity about them, vis a vis the Mainland Chinese.  There is a deeply engrained mistrust of all HK People towards the Mainland Chinese.  Even as they scurry there on weekends to pick up Chinese girls, or go there to visit factories, even as they admit they 靠中国吃饭, the HKG People simply wish China would go away.

No HKG policeman will stand by and allow a Chinese soldier to shoot a Hong Kong civilian in cold blood.  Hong Kong policeman carry firearms.    In order for Beijing to successfully put down any demonstrations in Hong Kong, it will need the cooperation of the Hong Kong Police.  That would have to come from the top down.  That can only come about if Beijing acts peacefully.  Anything else will greatly risk a potential clash between the HKG police and the PLA.

However, should the Chinese Army be called out of its local barracks, onto the streets of Mong Kok and Wan Chai, it will also ignite the passions of the Silent Majority.   Should that day come than you will know what a real Hong Kong Demonstration looks like.   

(Just remember the PLA isn’t used to getting heckled within China, nor having bottles thrown at it.  Beijing better declare Martial Law, and a curfew as well….just the sight of the PLA with guns on the streets of HKG will inflame the city)

Hong Kong People cannot stand Mainland Chinese.  They look down upon them, and quite frankly treat them as 3rd class citizens within their own colony(whoops, I mean City).  Nevermind that China has literally carried Hong Kong economically on its back for the better part of a decade.   Hong Kong over the past twenty years, has slowly seen itself reduced to nothing more than a City of First Rank amongst a coterie of rapidly growing equals.  Even Guangzhou has some glitz about it nowadays.

China’s Rich and Powerful have Made Hong Kong.  The Luxury Market there owes its prosperity to China.

No matter…

Another thing we need to make clear is that China has absolutely no qualms about shooting itself in the foot and letting the wound bleed awhile if that is what it takes to subdue Hong Kong.

Banning of exports from Hong Kong? Done.

Rerouting of exports through Yantian or Shanghai or anywhere else?  No Problem.

The closing of customs at the China-Hong Kong Border…..problem?

The banning of cross border traffic?  We can do that.

In short, China can make life in Hong Kong a very, very major inconvenience for people that live there.

Indeed….I’d argue that Chinese officials are chomping at the bit to do such a thing.   Is the best way to quell internal unrest in China to make a public example of Hong Kong?  Remember all those posts I’ve written about the unaccountable, Chinese middle ranking officials that make all the decisions and do all the hard work within China?   They’d just love to give HKG it’s comeuppance. 

And nobody in China proper will give a “Flying Fuck”.    You think for a nano second that the People of China will give a damn if the government smacks somebody else down?  It happens to them all the time.

One cannot forget the Chinese People’s Psychology:  they are only happy not when they are as “wealthy” as their neighbor, but only when their neighbor is “as poor as me”.

Do the Chinese People have Aspirations?  Damn right they do.  Is Democracy one of them?  Nope.   Like America in the 1760’s, Democracy is only a hope for those with time to think and write.  99% of the Chinese know all too well the wisdom of low expectations towards their Leaders.  And that expectation is part of the “Secret Sauce” that allows China to keep working, without any large scale unrest or chaos among the Han. 

That wisdom was reinforced at Tiananmen.

Will the Chinese government become an international pariah?  Of course it will.  But to echo the wisdom of that Great Western Thinker George Harrison, “All Things Must Pass”.

The Hong Kong students of course haven’t learned that yet.  But don’t fool yourself.  These HK students(and people) aren’t just complaining about getting snookered over a list of candidates they have no right to choose.  These kids all share a genuine distaste and abhorrence for China and what it stands for.  And it’s been ingrained within them over the dinner table by their parents and family since birth.   They simply lack the wisdom and experience to shrug their shoulders and move on to the next day.  

Does China itself care about its reputation overseas?  Nope.   China isn’t like Burma, a country run by iron fisted generals that one day woke up and suddenly realized it was a small and vulnerable nation.  China doesn’t give a fuck what the West thinks.   And that’s bad.  Bad for everyone involved.

China isn’t in this for popularity contests.   It understands that as soon as it “gives in” to Hong Kong, Shenzhen may be next, or god forbid Shanghai.  Some wealthy coastal city sophisticated enough to understand that some rights simply cannot be “taken away”.   Clamping down on Hong Kong will make China’s life infinitely easier within China itself. 

Still Beijing needs to think real hard before it does something as hasty as violently putting down those Hong Kong kids.   They were correct when they mentioned “incalculable consequences” could ensue.

(Beijing never for a moment considered that the Western ban on military exports to China after Tiananmen would last this long)

Another “incalculable consequence” is while the West may look the Other Way when China hurts its Own People, it won’t so willingly do so should the same happen to a Democratic People.   Should anything happen to the Hong Kong People, China could be on the outside looking in for a very long time.

As for Taiwan, hasn’t it been pretty much off the radar?  There are even grumblings that the USA would be willing to sacrifice Taiwan to the PRC should that moment ever come.   That thinking will be off the table though should the PRC ever get violent in HKG.  And it would pretty much guarantee to everyone that only violence can settle the PRC-Taiwan Question.

Yes, Britain never granted Hong Kong democracy, or the “right to vote”.   Equating Britain with China is lazy logic.  Did the Hong Kong people  ever demonstrate against British Rule?  (we’re not talking abt the 60’s)

Did the British ever threaten Hong Kong with “incalculable consequences”?