What do WE want to accomplish?

What is our goal?

Is it as a Western Civilization to keep China down?
Or are we ready to openly come out and admit we wish to contain China?

How does one keep water flowing downhill?

As you all know, the Chinese are here in force. It should be America's goal, (and your countries' goal!) to liberate as much money from China's wallets as possible.  Through hook or crook.  Every embezzled dime. Every inherited Yuan.  

The Chinese government just warned its citizens to be careful of America.  To proceed with caution when travelling here.  Seriously?  Methinks the Chinese in China have long since already heard from their cohorts in California what an...ok place this be.    It’s a bit too late for slogans and dire omens of an ill wind coming.  

But I ask, what is it we wish to accomplish in our current dealings with China?  Who do we wish to punish? Is it the officials?  The peasant workers cum tooling expert?  The foreign trade sales lady at the factory?

Because if our goal is to teach the Chinese CEO's a lesson, I'm afraid that probably will not work.

The Chinese are too nimble, and there are just too many of them, and too many lazy folks sitting around here, waiting to get wiped out by someone from the East willing to work a tad harder, and take on a bit more risk.

Let's say we ban Chinese trade into America. I think someone once told me half of America's trade with China comes from American factories already built in China.  These American companies are simply shipping stuff back home to suckers like me.  They tell themselves it's ok to fire an American worker, as they are simply going to sell him or her cheaper socks anyway.  So it all evens out right?

So let's go ahead and kneecap China.  Let us put a heavy tariff on all Chinese imports into America.  (Pick a country)

And better yet, let us say China Does Not retaliate.  Finally learns to take the High Road! (George Bush Sr would be proud!)

Then what?

What happens to all those Chinese companies?

I'll tell you what.

They leave China. 

They go to Vietnam.  Thailand. Cambodia even.

They go to Mexico. They even go to Latin America. 

Is America really going to tax Chinese companies in Mexico?  You see all these Chinese companies in Mexico are creating jobs.  And guess what?  Illegal immigration comes to a standstill.  Just like that.

Honduras, etc.  All these places suddenly want to work in Mexico. 

And what about Europe?  What if America and Europe have a United Front against the Chinese?  Give 'em hell!  Teach 'em a lesson!  Then what?  Will Europe really get mad if China sets up shop in Poland?  Slovenia?

The Chinese will simply bring their top managers with them. 

The goal of America (or Europe or Australia etc.) should not be to hurt Chinese business.  But to take China's wealth and spread it amongst other countries. 

Why should China be scared?  It's not about losing a trade war with America or whoever.  It is about losing control of its supply to foreign currency.  And rising unemployment.  The Chinese government will simply have less money to play with.   No one really cares in China if many of their companies' go to Africa.  Because what is made willingly returns to China.  Back home.

You think a Chinese entrepreneur finally free of the $50,000 annual foreign exchange limit is gonna take his money back to China?  Seriously?  He's gonna open back accounts all over Europe and South America and Mexico.  Places with no foreign currency restrictions.   These companies (like ours) won't give a damn about Chinese workers in  Shenzhen.

They just want to keep their business with the laowai intact.

They are smart, calculating risk takers.  They will flood into Vietnam enmasse, and won't think twice about doing what they have to do to survive.  They won't think twice about breaking free of China's onerous bureaucracy or banking regulations.  Housing will be cheaper in Bangkok then in Shanghai.  Cheaper in Guadalajara than Guangzhou.  

China will over time take a great hit to its national wealth. This will force China to create draconian rules for all overseas factories.  Probably forcing them to repatriate their income.  You think that's gonna happen?

The Chinese will adapt.  They will open hotels in Cuba.  All of Southeast Asia, Latin America and even Mexico, has no idea what will happen to their economies, their societies, should Chinese imports really be taxed.  Any hit America takes in my view will be a short term effect only. 

First come the factories, which will bring a few workers, but mostly engineers, and technicians.  Then come the families.  These families will have kids.  These kids will go to public schools.   Within a generation, another huge swath of middle class Latino's will be wiped out by the smarter, harder working Chinese Wave.   And as these societies are all far more corrupt than America, the fall will be quicker. But these countries over the course of a generation will all be richer.  

Some may have a goal of keeping the Chinese Navy down.  The Chinese Government.  But any trade war with China will not keep the Chinese People down. 

No way. 


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