There will be blood

A Sino conflict with somebody, is inevitable.  It cannot be avoided.  Sooner or later, some anonymous  Chinese bureaucrat will make a decision that will set in motion a chain of events that leads to an accident.   Just as with the American spy plane many years before. 

Sooner or later some fool, some idiot, will do something, either from his comfy chair in his military office, or up in a cockpit, that will cause China to come into conflict with another nation.  It’s only a matter of Time.

China truly is brewing for a fight, with anyone, but on it’s terms.  It looks like the first “victim” will be the poor little Philippines.   As I wrote in an earlier post, the kicking out of the US military by the Filipino government  was shortsighted to the extreme.   The Filipino Nationalists from the 80’s….where are they now?  Probably in a closet cowering somewhere, shaking their heads in disbelief, asking themselves “how it came to this”.  

The Americans are meanwhile relieved they no longer have a military presence there(Thanks a lot guys!!), one less headache they have to worry about,  as China continues it’s slow meandering,  rise to prominence. 

But the real fight the Chinese are brewing for is Japan.  I’m not talking about a full fledged naval battle, or anything of the nature.  Yet.   But a clash will occur, and will be by accident.  Maybe  one pilot in the heat of the moment launching a missile against another pilot, or two naval warships ramming each other in the seas between Japan and China.  Sooner or Later shots will be fired, and blood will be spilt.

On the face of such a conflict China has little to lose.  It’s country is filled with fenqing, or radical youth, indoctrinated on the kool aid of Chinese nationalism and destiny(sound familiar?).  Of Japanese debauchery towards the Great Sino Nation, over the past 150 years.   No matter what happens, China will be able to put a positive spin on the events, to it’s own benefit, and show it’s own people it is not tolerating further Japanese “aggression”.

Should anyone truly be surprised by China wanting to pick a fight?  China doesn’t see itself as a newly rising Power.   Rather, it see’s itself merely re-emerging from a slumber.   Still, China’s re-emergence as a rich and powerful nation only brings pressure onto itself to validate its view of it’s own importance.   Why is that so important?  Simple….it’s been saying how great China is to it’s own people now for ages.  The more you talk, the more one needs to back it up, not because it wants to but because it’s own people that have been hearing how great they are now require some evidence of China behaving like a Great Power.   And that means kicking someone’s ass.  It’s very similar to the 

USA at the turn of the 19^th Century.   America wanted validation as a global power, and poor Spain stood in the way.  And thanks to the nationalistic rhetoric we see in volumes from the Chinese Press, China will be forced sooner or later to act the same way.  It’s only a question of who it will first pick it’s first fight with.

Wasn’t China King of the Hill for a better part of the past 1000 years(at least)?    Why the sensitivity towards it’s own status today?   Because in the past China had the mechanism of TRIBUTE from other nations.    This TRIBUTE was defacto recognition from other nations that China was a badass….THE badass among nations.   Whenever China says it’s never “started a war”, nor been an “aggressor among nations”,  pls remember the reason was simply because other nations were all too willing to pony up. 

  Well….there is no system of “tribute” today.   So China’s psychological NEED for respect is all the greater.

(When authoritarian nations rise(see Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany) one of the first things they do is bully other nations, ie have conflict.   This validates the legitimacy of the government and instills pride in the Nation.  Remember, one of the best ways to instill pride in a Nation is by kicking some other Nations’ ass. )

China however, is especially wonton to pick a fight because of what it is, ie a former great power.  Indeed, the dominant Global Power in terms of share of global GDP, for the better part of a thousand years.  (this cannot be said of either Japan or Germany) China was the Big Boy on the Block.  It demanded tribute from both Korea and Vietnam.  The South China Sea was it’s lake,  until it chose of it’s own making to close it’s doors and draw the blinds in the 1400’s.

So China doesn’t see itself as a “bully”.  It just see’s itself as reclaiming it’s natural and historical place in the world, albeit at the expense of other nations.   It doesn’t hurt that China blames others for it’s weakness over the past couple of centuries, and thus is even more determined to restore “equilibrium among nations”.

Though we believe that China is only acting this way because of the national humiliations placed upon it in recent times, this is almost a lazy conclusion to make.   It is a conclusion China is all too willing to encourage.   Even if Japan had never invaded or slaughtered Chinese Citizens, methinks China would still want to regain it’s place in Asia as the Big Dog, regardless.   Recent unfortunate history is simply a very convenient cover.  Does one think for a moment that China, the Great Nation of Ancient Times, would be content to now take a back seat to any country in Asia, regardless of what has transpired over the past 80 years?

This is where “manifest destiny” comes in.   China has problems, very serious problems, accepting change.   Like a guy that cannot accept that his lover has moved on, or that he’s no longer the best player on his team, China cannot accept that things just aren’t what they used to be.

This makes China all the more determined to “force the issue” and bring back a glint of glory.  Never mind the geopolitical reasons, or anything we may hear about oil.  It’s all psychological.  China needs a confrontation, to validate itself.   It needs to look in the mirror one morning, once that event has happened, and be able to say to itself

“I’m important”

“I’m somebody”

“I’m respected”

“I’m back”

It won’t believe it’s back until that happens. What China will not say is that it doesn’t feel respected.   My thinking is that’s still the inferiority complex talking.   And as long as China continues to listen to it’s inner self, the rest of us will continue to be nervous.

Than what?  That’s what I’ll talk abt next time.