All viruses are Socialist

 I've been gone a month.....which is typically what happens when I'm in China working.  No China this time.   Rather, I'm just busy, and the blog has taken a back seat.  I do work for a medical supply company, which should be enough said regarding my schedule.  

I do have multiple things to talk about.  In the past, I would simply put them in one of my "fluff" posts....but I'd rather write them out....it's more fun!

So let's get to it.  A friend of mine from Ningbo with a family in Canada actually left China during the Mid Autumn Festival to see his wife and kids, whom he had properly deposited in a nice neighborhood only just recently.  Upon leaving China and arriving in Canada he soon realized he was "stuck" there.  You see, China wouldn't even let him board a plane unless he'd had a negative test within a 72 hr period of his departure date.  Thus buying a ticket was difficult.  But now the vaccination is here, couldn't he just wait a little longer before flying home?  Apparently not.  He is now stuck in Shanghai for two weeks, in a "very bad hotel".    He's not happy.  I think it's funny. 

Quite frankly, this damn virus is out of control.  We've turned a corner, but in my view, it could be for the worse.  Yes, here in the States' and Europe we have "vaccines".   And yes we will get vaccinated.   And yes the supply will very soon outstrip any remaining demand remaining within America, and perhaps even Europe(?)

My response is so what?  I'm not trying to sound callous.  Or negative.   Rather what I now realize is that the vaccine we all have now is the vaccine for the virus that existed 6 months ago.   Not the new variant.  And as such our vaccines will only be able to protect against Virus 1.0.   Should you get the vaccination BEFORE you get that new variant hits your population, you will be ok.  Or rather not as exposed as much if you did eventually did get the virus. 

For those of us who may not get the vaccine, than most likely we may get the new South African variant, for which the current vaccinations suck.   So it is a race. 

Well isn't this a China Blog?  Well, yes it is.

I'm planning on getting the vaccination sometime in the Spring.  Two doses of course, because 95% is better than 65%.  However, one must remember these two vaccinations, Moderna vs Johnson & Johnson were tested in different environments. Thus are really not apples to apples.  If Moderna was tested in South Africa, perhaps it too would have fared poorly. 

But back to my China Point.  My Great Hope was that I would get back to China sometime in late Summer.  I know for sure I will be able to go to Europe.  I'm actually quite confident I will be able to go to Europe before China.  Probably this Summer actually. 

But  you see the Chinese are in a predicament.  Not for the last time our Heavenly Kingdom Colleagues have painted themselves into a corner.   After months of saying how efficient their virus is, to suddenly have hordes of barbarians, complete with backpacks and laptops at the gate, all vaccinated....well that won't message very well, now will it?

Meanwhile, very, very few Chinese will have themselves been properly vaccinated.  And the efficacy is rumored to only be around 50%.   Due to China's large population, there won't really be herd immunity until 2022.   Still....the question wasn't really will China let them in?  No.  The black box was simple;  Will it really make an officially vaccinated individual with a superior vaccination actually quarantine for two weeks in a shoddy hotel?  

Will China just let us in?   Why not, right?  Afterall, China's hotels are suffering.  The Ritz Carlton in Guangzhou for instance can be had for only $200 a night, instead of double that price.  China's tourist industry has simply been walloped.  Crushed.  The only foreigners truly remaining in China are English teachers stuck on contract.  If an expat is there, it's probably because he or she is single, because no self respecting laowai is either keeping his family there or leaving them here, to go back.  The damn mistress can wait. 

China has no good choices.   The global community would howl if we had to really undergo a two week quarantine.  But it would "play well" to the home crowd.  But won't the Chinese themselves simply   wonder, "where is my vaccination?", if they just let us simply back in?   After all aren't  the vaccinations of the laowai inferior?

Well.....now that decision has been made for them.  This South African variant is already in America, as are the others.  And just like that until the new vaccination comes along to stop THAT variant, methinks the Chinese will be happy to keep us out just a tad longer.   Indeed.   When is the last time China has been this "cleansed" of us?

But if the Chinese can't master this current virus, do you really think they will be able to master this new one?  In sum, all viruses are socialist.   

Everyone has an equal opportunity to become infected.  Simple as that.  And if the Chinese can't control this new one, or if they continue to have continuous sporadic outbreaks, long after we ourselves have all become vaccinated, do you really think they will just let us all in?  

When one controls the narrative, the optics are everything.  

And what of the Western World?  Will they allow anyone inside their borders with merely a Chinese vaccination? How will those optics work?    And what if India let's us in before China?  Or Vietnam?  Will China still sit back as the laowai with his contracts  and USD makes deals somewhere else? No one will be even thinking of these things for another six months.  Except you and I. 

Stay safe.