Russia as Mirror

A few years ago I posted the below:

In essence, those in the West....or even China, that call for Democracy in the Heavenly Kingdom are nothing short of fools, themselves.   While criticizing China..shaking our fist at China, or shaking our head slowly in a disappointed and frustrated fashion, we should all remember that what happened in Russia the other day, the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, is but a stark reminder of what we should expect should we see China go down the same beaten path.

Russia for the foreseeable future is lost to the rest of us.  Russia's bad luck was to fall into the grip of a paranoid, Anti-Western former KGB leader, after the tumult of Yeltsin.  Yeltsin, a public drunkard, and Clinton got along famously, and Western -Russian ties seemed to be on the upswing.  But the masses were unhappy with all the upheaval caused by the transition to Democracy.   Russia felt weak, as a result and Yeltsin came to be seen as a laughingstock to his own people.

Putin was a breath of fresh air to the People of Russia.  He never smiled and had excellent self discipline.  He was just what Russia needed.  A strong leader.  Macho.  A penchant for doing things his way.  He stirred the hollow nationalist feelings within the People.  The price:  Leadership for Life.  And carte blanche decision making authority over who would become rich and would not.  Who would be imprisoned and who would not.  He is in short a modern day dictator, driving his country to Hell.  Within 2 years, Glorious Russia will be broke.  Then they will find out, as the Iranians did, just how practical the Chinese are, when it comes to money and trade agreements.

Contracts mean nothing to the Chinese.   There is no such thing as a "locked in" price.  They follow "the price", and if it benefits them, they will change it in a contract, or simply tear it up and walk away.  Ask Iran.   The downside to having an ally such as China, that truly does not interfere in one's internal affairs, is the absence of any sanctimony when it comes to natural gas or oil contracts.

But I digress:

Putin is a thug, but he is a modern day thug.  Demonstrations to the extent we may not see for another generation within China are allowed(albeit with a heavy police presence).

The failure to "stay the course" with free market principles and an elective democracy is a dance with the devil.  Chaos.  Thuggery.  A mafia run amok.    The decline of rule by law.  A very slippery slope.  
This is what we would see if China was to take the path of Russia.  Except China has ten times the population of Russia.    If Russia did not have nuclear weapons, it would be ignored.   It would not even have a seat at The Table.

As Russia slowly disintegrates, will China do the same?   Only if some mysterious committee of fools turns China into a "democratic nation".  But the disintegration won't be nearly as slow.  Nothing good nor slow happens when things go bad for over a billion people.   Imagine China in the 1930's,   when the murder of political opponents happened on a daily basis, by all sides.   Now drag that same country to the Modern Age,  but with nuclear weapons and swagger.  Scary Place.

I don't know about you, but on a macro level I like China just how it is.  I like predictability.    The Chinese watch Russia and know the same thing can happen to them.   I bet there aren't so many people drinking the "Democracy Koolaid" in China right now.


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