Soft landing my ass.

Soft landing my ass.  The disparity of wealth is here to stay, until implosion dictates otherwise.

Hear I am, sitting comfortably with my coffee on a nice leather sofa, far from the sounds of any coming storm, hearing again that China needs a soft landing.  Won't happen.   And I'm not talking economically.  China is too far gone down the road of no return.  A decision has been made that it is easier to just take the money and run, than to stand and fight for reform.

The disparity of wealth is so great, and the dispersion to change that would veer society towards a more equitable arrangement so entrenched, that it is indeed easier to just flee overseas with your begotten gains, than to stand and reform the unchangeable direction of Chinese society today.

This is not what Deng Xiaoping envisioned.
He did have the foresight to understand that some people would take advantage of their new opportunities to gain wealth, to the disadvantage of some.  He did envision abuse of the system.

He did realize a higher tide raises all boats.  But he didn't expect the ships of the obscenely wealthy to be this large, and the rowboats to continue to be so numerous.

Credit to Deng, he unleashed the natural instinctive ability of the Chinese people, for the benefit of the nation.  And the nation has gained.  Every new system must be tweaked however, and this the Chinese leadership has failed to do in any substantive manner.  

Corruption is so deeply engrained within Chinese society that it really no longer is looked at in such a negative light.  Like breathing, it is simply something one must do to survive.  And one's ability and status within society reflects one's ability to get what one can, at the expense of others.

Not a very harmonious society, is it?

IF there is any benefit to this unchangeable aspect within society it is that  problem solving has now become predictable.  With the right amount of coin, anything can be overcome.

Yet a society where for decades equality was stressed at the expense of unequal economic prosperity has in a very deliberate fashion decided not to change for the better.  Reform, as they say, must come from the top down. As anyone knows, this is impossible.  That would entail the complete dismemberment of leadership.   The country would cease to function.

What of the social contract?

So as the economy begins to falter, what will happen to the unwritten agreement between the people and the government?   China's sweet spot has been diminished.   China can no longer "just grow".   Now it needs real leadership.  Capable bureaucrats to guide the ship.  Something it didn't need in the past when companies were flocking here to setup factories.   My guess is they will fail in their mission.  They will fail to create jobs in the number needed and will not be innovative enough to create new industries.   This will lead to a stagnant middle class.   Which will lead to resentment towards those who have access to the benefits that they themselves cannot attain.

This will enlargen the disparity between those with access and those without.   The gap between incomes will only increase.  And the top leadership will make the decision to just give themselves passports rather than stay and solve the problems they lack the ability to solve.  

It's not the China of Xi Jinping we should watch, but the China of the leader that follows.


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